Trump’s Hamiltonian Tariff Policies Remain in “Wait for It” Status

The Trump Administration’s trade approach is not a new strategy. Indeed, the United States has a long history of using tariffs and subsidies to foster domestic manufacturing, promote skilled labor, and achieve national independence. As early as 1791, Alexandar Hamilton strongly advocated for a more restrictive trade policy in his “Report on Manufactures” to promote US economic growth. The Trump administration has largely adopted the principles outlined by Hamilton and continues to implement a strategy to drive US manufacturing growth and increase foreign direct investment. Though, the biggest difference in 2025 from 1791 is that the Trump administration is leveraging its tariff policy not only to reset trade balances, but also to reset many long-standing geopolitical challenges. As the Trump administration’s ambitious effort rolls into its sixth month of implementation, we are entering a critical time to reach trade agreements and to settle trade anxiety in the marketplace.

To steal a line from Lin-Manuel Miranda’s Hamilton, trade agreements have been unfolding “in the room where it happened.” Major trading partners, including the United Kingdom, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and Canada, among others, are engaged in ongoing negotiations to avoid or mitigate US tariffs. Some countries have received temporary reprieves or quota-based arrangements. While the administration is finalizing a series of trade deals, many remain verbal and lack necessary details to provide market certainty. To stay on theme, the market is “willing to wait for it.”

So, as we head into Labor Day weekend, where do we stand?

Paused and Revised Tariffs

Reciprocal Tariffs

After imposing a new 10% baseline “reciprocal” tariff on all imported goods and increased tariffs for certain countries,[1] President Trump back-tracked and delayed the country-specific reciprocal tariffs for every country but China until July 9.[2] China’s country-specific reciprocal tariff, after escalation, was separately suspended until August 12.[3] The 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods remained in effect.

The administration then promised to deliver “90 deals in 90 days.” After it fell short of its goal, on July 7, the administration extended the suspension to August 1.[4] Thereafter, President Trump sent letters to select countries informing them of their updated reciprocal tariff rates.[5] For some countries, the letters provided that their revised rate would be lower than the rate initially announced on April 2. For others, the letters stated their revised rate would be higher. Most letters did not address the rationale behind any rate adjustment. The letters to Brazil, Canada, the EU, and Mexico, however, included more information about the president’s issues with those countries. The letters indicated that the tariff rates “may be modified, upward or downward,” depending on the US’s “relationship with [the] Country.”

On July 31, President Trump issued an executive order modifying the country-specific reciprocal tariffs.[6] The executive order provides revised tariff rates in an annex that went into effect on August 7. Any country not included in the annex remains subject to the 10% baseline tariff. The executive order included an in-transit exception for goods that were loaded onto a vessel at the port of loading and in transit on the final mode of transit before August 7 and are entered for consumption or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption before October 5. The executive order recognizes that negotiations are ongoing with several trading partners, but the tariff rates provided will remain in effect until the agreements are concluded and President Trump issues a subsequent order memorializing the agreements.

Most country-specific rates are in addition to any other applicable duties and stack on top of preexisting tariffs. However, the EU’s rate is dependent on the rate already imposed on the product. If the tariff imposed is less than 15%, the reciprocal tariff rate is 15% minus the tariff already imposed. If the tariff imposed is greater than 15%, the reciprocal tariff is 0%. The dual EU rates are structured to effectively increase existing tariffs on EU goods to 15%, while not applying any additional duties on EU goods that are already subject to tariffs above 15%.

The executive order also includes an increased tariff for goods that are found to be transshipped to evade applicable tariffs. Any article determined by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to be transshipped to evade tariffs will be subject to a 40% tariff in lieu of the applicable duty of the country of origin. CBP will also impose appropriate fines and penalties as well as any other duties, fees, taxes, exactions, or charges applicable to goods of the country of origin.

Tariffs on Goods from Canada, China, and Mexico

On July 31, President Trump issued an executive order increasing the tariff on goods from Canada from 25% to 35% that was imposed in connection with the purported fentanyl related national emergency.[7] Goods that fall under the United States-Canada-Mexico Agreement (USMCA) remain exempt from this tariff. President Trump did not issue an additional executive order pertaining to Mexico. However, he posted on social media on July 31 stating that he was granting Mexico another ninety-day extension to allow negotiations to continue. Accordingly, Mexico will remain subject to a 25% tariff imposed in connection with the purported fentanyl related national emergency, with an exemption for goods that fall under the USMCA.

As for China, the president had reduced the country-specific tariff on goods from China from 125% back down to 34% and suspending 24% of that for ninety days beginning May 14 expiring August 12.[8] The 20% tariff imposed in connection with the purported fentanyl related national emergency remained in place. On August 11, President Trump extended the suspension of the 24% for another ninety days until November 10.[9]

Aluminum and Steel Tariffs

The proclamations that imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum required the Department of Commerce to establish a process for including additional derivative aluminum and steel articles within the scope of the tariffs.[10] Thereafter, the Bureau of Industry and Security established an inclusion process.[11] More recently, Commerce published a notice expanding the list of aluminum and steel derivative products subject to Section 232 tariffs.[12] Effective August 18, the tariffs apply to 407 additional HTSUS codes now considered aluminum and steel derivative products. The tariffs apply to the value of the aluminum or steel content in the derivative product. The non-aluminum or non-steel content remains subject to any other applicable tariffs.

Newly Imposed Tariffs

Tariffs on Goods from Brazil

In a letter dated July 9, President Trump warned Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva that he would impose a 50% tariff on all imports from Brazil starting August 1. Then, on July 30, President Trump issued an executive order imposing a 40% tariff on goods from Brazil beginning August 6.[13] This brings the tariff on most goods from Latin America’s largest economy to 50%. Trump has previously claimed the US runs a trade deficit with Brazil, when the US has run a trade surplus with Brazil since 2007 and ran a $6.8 billion trade surplus with Brazil last year.[14]

The executive order includes an in-transit exception for goods that were loaded onto a vessel at the port of loading and in transit on the final mode of transit before August 6, and are entered for consumption or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption before October 5. The executive order states that the 40% tariff does not apply to (1) articles excepted by 50 U.S.C. § 1702(b); (2) articles listed in the annex, including civil aircraft, pig iron, certain precious metals, wood pulp, energy products, and fertilizers; and (3) articles subject to existing or future Section 232 tariffs. Otherwise, the tariff is in addition to any other applicable duties, fees, exactions, and charges, including the 10% “reciprocal” tariff currently imposed on goods from Brazil.

President Trump again relied on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose the tariff on goods from Brazil. Because the IEEPA does not mention tariffs or duties and has never been used before to impose tariffs, there is ongoing litigation challenging President Trump’s authority to impose tariffs under the IEEPA.[15] The IEEPA gives the president authority to control international transactions after declaring a national emergency with respect to an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the US. To impose the tariff on goods from Brazil, the executive order claims that recent policies, practices, and actions of the Brazil government constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the US. Specifically, the executive order contends that “members of the Government of Brazil have taken unprecedented actions that harm and are a threat to the economy of the United States, conflict with and threaten the policy of the United States to promote free speech and free and fair elections at home and abroad, and violate fundamental human rights.”

President Lula has stated that he is in no rush to strike a deal with the US or retaliate against the US tariffs, noting that Brazil “need[s] to be very cautious.” In response to the tariff, the Brazil government has filed a request for consultations at the World Trade Organization (WTO), stating that the US “flagrantly violates core commitments made to the WTO” by imposing the steep levies. The US has since accepted the request for consultations. The WTO consultation process involves seeking a negotiated solution before proceeding with arbitration.

Earlier in July, the US Trade Representative (USTR) announced a Section 301 investigation into Brazil’s acts, policies, and practices related to digital trade and electronic payment services, unfair, preferential tariffs, anti-corruption enforcement, intellectual property protection, ethanol market access, and illegal deforestation.[16] Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 authorizes the USTR to investigate and respond to foreign trade practices that are deemed unfair, unreasonable, or discriminatory and that burden or restrict US commerce. If the USTR determines that such practices exist, it may take various action including imposing duties or other import restrictions on goods or services from the Brazil.

Tariffs on Copper

On July 30, the Trump administration issued a proclamation imposing a 50% tariff on copper beginning on August 1 under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.[17] The tariff is imposed on all imports of semi-finished copper and intensive copper derivative products. The tariff is in addition to any other applicable duties, fees, exactions, and charges. The list of covered Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) codes is included in a technical annex. The tariff only applies to the copper content. The non-copper content of the copper articles remains subject to the “reciprocal” tariffs and the tariffs on goods from Canada, China, and Mexico imposed in connection with the purported fentanyl related national emergency. However, if the product listed in the annex is also subject to the Section 232 tariffs on automobiles and automobile parts, it will only be subject to the Section 232 automotive tariff. The Proclamation also instructs the Department of Commerce to establish an “inclusions process” within ninety days by which it can include additional derivative copper articles within the scope of the tariff.

Suspension of De Minimis Entry

On July 30, President Trump also signed an executive order suspending de minimis entry beginning on August 29.[18] The executive order states that “[t]he duty-free de minimis exemption provided under 19 U.S.C. § 1321(a)(2)(C) shall no longer apply to any shipment of articles not covered by 50 U.S.C. § 1702(b) regardless of value, country of origin, mode of transportation, or method of entry.” The executive order also establishes new rates for shipments sent through the international postal network. Duties on such goods must be assessed: (1) a duty equal to the effective IEEPA tariff rate” applicable to the country of origin of the product, assessed based on the value of each shipment, or (2) a duty ranging from $80 to $200 per item, depending on the effective IEEPA tariff rate applicable to the country of origin of the product. The latter methodology is only available for six months.

Tariffs on Goods from India

On August 6, President Trump issued an executive order targeting India and imposing a 25% tariff on goods from India beginning August 27.[19] This was done in response to India’s continued imports of Russian oil, and President Trump again relied on the IEEPA to impose the additional tariff on goods from India. The executive order includes an in-transit exception for goods that were loaded onto a vessel at the port of loading and in transit on the final mode of transit before August 27, and are entered for consumption or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption before September 17. The new tariff is in addition to any other applicable other duties, fees, taxes, exactions, and charges, including the 25% reciprocal tariff that took effect on August 7. However, the tariff does not apply to (1) articles excepted by 50 U.S.C. § 1702(b), (2) articles exempt from the reciprocal tariffs, and (3) articles subject to existing or future Section 232 tariffs.

Ongoing Negotiations and Developing Agreements

United Kingdom

On May 8, President Trump announced the framework for a trade deal with the UK, the first agreement the Trump administration has reached since imposing its recent tariffs.[20] Certain terms of the agreement were then memorialized in an executive order on June 16.[21] The executive order establishes an annual tariff-rate quota of 100,000 automobiles, which will be subject to a reduced tariff rate of 10%. Imports in excess of the quota remain subject to the 25% tariff recently imposed on all imported automobiles in addition to the most-favored-nation rate for automobiles of 2.5%. The executive order provides that auto parts are likewise subject to a 10% tariff. The executive order further establishes that the reciprocal, aluminum, and steel tariffs do not apply to products that fall under the World Trade Organization Agreement on Trade in Civil Aircraft. The executive order did not provide any immediate relief from aluminum and steel tariffs but instead merely states that Commerce must design and establish a tariff-rate quota for aluminum and steel articles and derivative articles. No formal deal has been finalized.

Vietnam

On July 2, President Trump stated that he reached a deal with Vietnam and that he agreed to reduce the tariff imposed on goods from Vietnam from 46% to 20%. However, goods suspected of transshipment will be subject to a 40% tariff. President Trump claimed Vietnam agreed to remove all tariffs from goods from the US. Vietnam however did not confirm the deal. The executive order that modified the country-specific reciprocal tariffs ultimately imposed a 20% tariff on goods from Vietnam. Negotiations continue, but neither country has formally signed off on any deal.

Indonesia

On July 22, the US and the Republic of Indonesia issued a joint statement announcing they have agreed to a framework for negotiating an agreement on reciprocal trade.[22] Indonesia agreed to address or eliminate certain non-tariff barriers, and the US agreed to decrease the threatened reciprocal tariffs on goods from Indonesia from 32% to 19%. No formal deal has been finalized.

Philippines

On July 22, President Trump announced that he reached a deal with the Philippines. He stated that he agreed to decrease the threatened 20% tariff goods from the Philippines to 19% and claimed the Philippines agreed to remove all tariffs from goods from the US. The announcement came after President Trump had met with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The final terms of any agreement however have not been officially confirmed by the Filipino government. Although the executive order that modified the country-specific reciprocal tariffs ultimately imposed a 19% tariff on goods from the Philippines, neither country has formally signed off on any deal.

Japan

On July 23, the Trump administration announced an agreement that lowers the threatened 25% tariff on goods from Japan to 15%.[23] In exchange, the administration stated that Japan committed to investing $550 billion in the US for the revitalization and expansion of strategic American sectors, including energy infrastructure and production, semiconductor manufacturing, critical minerals mining, processing, and refining, pharmaceutical and medical production, and commercial and defense shipbuilding. The administration also stated that Japan committed to increasing imports of certain US goods.

A formal joint statement has not been issued, and there has not been an official Japanese government version of the agreement. The specific terms of the Japanese investment remain unclear. President Trump has claimed that the $550 billion is money for him to invest as he sees fit, but Japanese officials are saying that the investment will consist primarily of government-backed loans and guarantees. On August 25, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated that an announcement regarding the trade deal with Japan will be made “later this week.” No formal deal has been finalized.

South Korea

On July 30, President Trump stated that he agreed to decrease the threatened reciprocal tariffs on goods from South Korea from 25% to 15%. President Trump claimed South Korea agreed to remove all tariffs from goods from the US and committed to investing $350 billion in the US and purchasing $100 billion of liquified natural gas or other energy products from the US. But, like Japan, the specific terms of the South Korean investment remain unclear. President Trump met with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung again on August 25. A formal deal between the two counties has not been finalized.

European Union

On August 21, the US and EU issued a joint statement announcing a framework agreement.[24] The joint statement notes that the framework agreement “represents a concrete demonstration of [the US and EU’s] commitment to fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial trade and investment” and that it is intended to be “a first step in a process that can be further expanded over time to cover additional areas and continue to improve market access and increase their trade and investment relationship.”

The framework agreement provides that the EU intends to eliminate tariffs on all US industrial goods and to provide preferential market access for a wide range of US seafood and agricultural goods. The US committed to applying the higher of its most favored nation (MFN) tariff or 15% (including Section 232 and reciprocal tariffs) on goods imported from the EU and applying only the MFN tariff to certain products. And both parties agreed to consider expanding the list of products for which only the MFN tariffs would apply. Both parties also agreed to ensuring diversified energy supplies, addressing non-tariff barriers, and promoting mutual investments on both sides of the Atlantic. To that end, the EU has pledged to buy $750 billion in US energy purchases and invest an additional $600 billion in the US through 2028. No formal deal has been finalized.

What’s Next?

While the Trump administration’s use of tariffs as leverage in trade negotiations is clearly having positive impacts to drive US manufacturing and foreign national investment (and ancillary causing an increase in revenues to Treasury), the market is eager to reach calmer waters and certainty. While some preliminary deals and framework agreements have been reached, most are limited in scope and leave key details unresolved. And legal challenges to Trump’s authority to impose his tariffs are ongoing. Consequently, ongoing trade negotiations and forthcoming appellate court decisions will shape the future direction of US trade policy and its effects on the global economy. As this continues, the Adams & Reese Global Trade & Transportation Team will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as they unfold.

FOOTNOTES

[1].     Exec. Order No. 14,257, 90 Fed. Reg. 15041 (Apr. 7, 2025).

[2].     Exec. Order No. 14,266, 90 Fed. Reg. 15625 (Apr. 15, 2025).

[3].     Exec. Order No. 14,298, 90 Fed. Reg. 21831 (May 21, 2025).

[4].     Exec. Order No. 14,316, 90 Fed. Reg. 30823 (July 10, 2025).

[5].     Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Continues Enforcement of Reciprocal Tariffs and Announces New Tariff Rates, White House (July 7, 2025), https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/07/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-continues-enforcement-of-reciprocal-tariffs-and-announces-new-tariff-rates/.

[6].     Exec. Order No. 14,326, 90 Fed. Reg. 37963 (Aug. 6, 2025).

[7].     Exec. Order No. 14,325, 90 Fed. Reg. 37957 (Aug. 6, 2025).

[8].     Exec. Order No. 14,298.

[9].     Exec. Order No. 14,334, 90 Fed. Reg. 39305 (Aug. 14, 2025).

[10].    Proclamation No. 10,895, 90 Fed. Reg. 9807 (Feb. 18, 2025); Proclamation No. 10,896, 90 Fed. Reg. 9817 (Feb. 18, 2025).

[11].    Adoption and Procedures of the Section 232 Steel and Aluminum Tariff Inclusions Process, 90 Fed. Reg. 18780 (May 2, 2025).

[12].    Adoption and Procedures of the Section 232 Steel and Aluminum Tariff Inclusions Process, 90 Fed. Reg. 40326 (Aug. 19, 2025).

[13].    Exec. Order No. 14, 323, 90 Fed. Reg. 37739 (Aug. 5, 2025).

[14].    See Brazil, Off. of the U.S. Trade Representative, https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/brazil (last visited Aug. 22, 2025).

[15].    After President Trump had threatened but before he had imposed an increased tariff on goods from Brazil, producers and distributors of fruit juices, drinks, and yogurt filed a lawsuit in the United States Court of International Trade challenging the president’s authority to impose such tariffs. Complaint, Johanna Foods, Inc. v. Exec. Off. of the President, No. 25-155 (Ct. Int’l Trade July 18, 2025). The Court stayed the matter pending a final, unappealable decision in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States and Oregon v. Trump. Memorandum & Order, Johanna Foods, Inc., No. 25-155.

[16].     Initiation of Section 301 Investigation: Brazil’s Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Digital Trade and Electronic Payment Services; Unfair, Preferential Tariffs; Anti-Corruption Enforcement; Intellectual Property Protection; Ethanol Market Access; and Illegal Deforestation; Hearing; and Request for Public Comments, 90 Fed. Reg. 34069 (July 18, 2025).

[17].    Proclamation No. 10,962, 90 Fed. Reg. 37727 (Aug. 5, 2025).

[18].    Exec. Order No. 14,324, 90 Fed. Reg. 37775 (Aug. 5, 2025).

[19].    Exec. Order No. 14,329, 90 Fed. Reg. 38701 (Aug. 11, 2025).

[20].    Fact Sheet: U.S.-UK Reach Historic Trade Deal, White House (May 8, 2025), https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/05/fact-sheet-u-s-uk-reach-historic-trade-deal/fact-sheets/2025/05/fact-sheet-u-s-uk-reach-historic-trade-deal/.

[21].    Exec. Order No. 14,309, 90 Fed. Reg. 26419 (June 23, 2025).

[22].    Joint Statement on Framework for United States-Indonesia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade, White House (July 22, 2025), https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/07/joint-statement-on-framework-for-united-states-indonesia-agreement-on-reciprocal-trade/.

[23].    Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Secures Unprecedented U.S.–Japan Strategic Trade and Investment Agreement, White House (July 23, 2025), https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/07/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-secures-unprecedented-u-s-japan-strategic-trade-and-investment-agreement/.

[24].    Joint Statement on a United States-European Union framework on an agreement on reciprocal, fair and balanced trade (Aug. 21, 2025), https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/news/joint-statement-united-states-european-union-framework-agreement-reciprocal-fair-and-balanced-trade-2025-08-21_en.